SJS 6: "India's Changing Political Fortunes"

Source:  Sen, Ronojoy. "India's Changing Political Fortunes." Current History: A Journal of Contemporary World Affairs 113.762 (2014): 131-36. Print. 

Author Credentials:  Ronojoy Sen has worked for leading Indian newspapers for over ten years. His degrees include a PhD in Political Science from the University of Chicago, an MA in International Studies from the University of South Carolina, and a BA in History from Presidency College in Calcutta, India. Dr. Sen is a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's Asia Research Institute and Institute of South Asian Studies. Ronojoy Sen is the author of Articles of Faith: Religion, Secularism, and the Indian Supreme Court, published by Oxford University Press. Now, he writes for The Times of India, The Straits Times and Today. In short, all of Ronojoy Sen's experience and credentials make him a very qualified individual for the writing of the article "India's Changing Political Fortunes." 

Summary:   The article "India's Changing Political Fortunes," by Ronojoy Sen, examines the political groups and trends involved in the April-May 2014 general elections in India. To begin, the article introduces the main parties involved in the election, and provides a short description: the Indian National Congress, which has been in government for much of India’s history as an independent state but is declining in popularity now; the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which seems to be in a better position than the Indian National Congress and is supporting Narenda Modi as its candidate for prime minister; the Common Man’s Party (Aam Aadmi Party, or AAP), which is a new party that originated in an anticorruption movement; and the strong regional or single-state parties that have added more unpredictability into India’s politics. The article then examines the Indian National Congress’ reasons for its decline in popularity. The most general reasons include many corruption scandals, high inflation, a slow economic growth rate, and a perception of a halt in policy in the national government. The Congress also has a lack of solid leadership. Rahul Gandhi, the nominee for prime ministerial candidate for the Congress, cannot compare to Modi, and failed to impress people with his reputation and public speaking. In India’s states, the Congress’ popularity is dropping. The larger states where the Congress did well in the 2009 elections, like Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan, are predicted to show poor support for the Congress in the upcoming election, so the Congress will be seeking to win over medium and smaller states. Meanwhile, the BJP has taken a risk in choosing Modi as their prime ministerial candidate, and has even suffered a split in its party as a result. Modi has three views associated with him: the first is that he is India’s best hope for political and economic change; the second is that he is focused on Hindu advancement and a religious bigot; the third is that he is too much of a divisive character to win a national character because of his reputation, especially as his city’s government failed to stop the murders of Muslims after a Hindu massacre in 2002. However, the BJP credits its success in the most recent state elections to Modi’s campaign. Next, the article discusses the regional parties. West Bengal’s Trinamool Congress and the ADMK are expected to do well, while other parties like the Samajwadi Party, are predicted to suffer. The last party is the AAP, led by Arvind Kejriwal. Its strategy is radically different from the others; in Delhi, it used an intensive door-to-door campaign to reach out for voters, it used social media, and it raised money from individual donors. It transitioned from anticorruption activism to having power, and this change was rough. The AAP may appeal to the middle- and lower- class people, but it does not have the organization to have an effective nationwide campaign. In conclusion, the BJP and Modi seem to be on the verge of success, while the AAP and especially the Indian National Congress will not, but the regional parties have not given up on a Third Front though; through all this, there is still little know of Modi and his vision for India for if he and the BJP come to power, though many Indians and people abroad see him as the cure for India’s stagnant economy and policies.

Analysis:  In his article “India’s Changing Political Fortunes,” Ronojoy Sen argues that India’s election would be a hard contest to call, especially with the introduction of the AAP, but certain broad trends can be observed. Dr. Sen provides detailed evidence to support this claim; he includes the election results of previous elections and the state elections to analyze which parties are rising or declining in popularity, and he includes statistics and the number of seats won in the previous and state elections. These statistics and results are facts, and he uses them to back up credible assumptions and other facts. There are not many opinions in the article, only predictions. Dr. Sen’s opinions are distinguished with key words such as “will be,” “expect,” and others. Lastly, Dr. Ronojoy Sen is a reliable source, as he has much experience and many strong credentials, and he is a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore.