Source: Sen, Ronojoy. "India's Changing
Political Fortunes." Current History: A Journal of
Contemporary World Affairs 113.762 (2014): 131-36. Print.
Author Credentials: Ronojoy Sen has worked for leading Indian newspapers
for over ten years. His degrees include a PhD in Political Science from
the University of Chicago, an MA in International Studies from the University
of South Carolina, and a BA in History from Presidency College in Calcutta,
India. Dr. Sen is a senior research fellow at the National University of
Singapore's Asia Research Institute and Institute of South Asian Studies.
Ronojoy Sen is the author of Articles of Faith: Religion, Secularism,
and the Indian Supreme Court, published by Oxford University
Press. Now, he writes for The Times of India, The Straits
Times and Today. In short, all of Ronojoy Sen's experience
and credentials make him a very qualified individual for the writing of the
article "India's Changing Political Fortunes."
Summary: The article
"India's Changing
Political Fortunes," by Ronojoy Sen, examines the political groups
and trends involved in the April-May 2014 general elections in India. To
begin, the article introduces the main parties involved in the election, and
provides a short description: the Indian National Congress, which has been in
government for much of India’s history as an independent state but is declining
in popularity now; the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which seems to be in a
better position than the Indian National Congress and is supporting Narenda
Modi as its candidate for prime minister; the Common Man’s Party (Aam Aadmi
Party, or AAP), which is a new party that originated in an anticorruption
movement; and the strong regional or single-state parties that have added more
unpredictability into India’s politics. The article then examines the Indian
National Congress’ reasons for its decline in popularity. The most general
reasons include many corruption scandals, high inflation, a slow economic
growth rate, and a perception of a halt in policy in the national government.
The Congress also has a lack of solid leadership. Rahul Gandhi, the nominee for
prime ministerial candidate for the Congress, cannot compare to Modi, and
failed to impress people with his reputation and public speaking. In India’s
states, the Congress’ popularity is dropping. The larger states where the
Congress did well in the 2009 elections, like Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan, are
predicted to show poor support for the Congress in the upcoming election, so
the Congress will be seeking to win over medium and smaller states. Meanwhile,
the BJP has taken a risk in choosing Modi as their prime ministerial candidate,
and has even suffered a split in its party as a result. Modi has three views
associated with him: the first is that he is India’s best hope for political
and economic change; the second is that he is focused on Hindu advancement and
a religious bigot; the third is that he is too much of a divisive character to
win a national character because of his reputation, especially as his city’s
government failed to stop the murders of Muslims after a Hindu massacre in
2002. However, the BJP credits its success in the most recent state elections
to Modi’s campaign. Next, the article discusses the regional parties. West
Bengal’s Trinamool Congress and the ADMK are expected to do well, while other
parties like the Samajwadi Party, are predicted to suffer. The last party is
the AAP, led by Arvind Kejriwal. Its strategy is radically different from the
others; in Delhi, it used an intensive door-to-door campaign to reach out for
voters, it used social media, and it raised money from individual donors. It
transitioned from anticorruption activism to having power, and this change was
rough. The AAP may appeal to the middle- and lower- class people, but it does
not have the organization to have an effective nationwide campaign. In
conclusion, the BJP and Modi seem to be on the verge of success, while the AAP
and especially the Indian National Congress will not, but the regional parties
have not given up on a Third Front though; through all this, there is still
little know of Modi and his vision for India for if he and the BJP come to
power, though many Indians and people abroad see him as the cure for India’s
stagnant economy and policies.
Analysis: In his article
“India’s Changing Political Fortunes,” Ronojoy Sen argues that India’s election
would be a hard contest to call, especially with the introduction of the AAP,
but certain broad trends can be observed. Dr. Sen provides detailed evidence to
support this claim; he includes the election results of previous elections and
the state elections to analyze which parties are rising or declining in
popularity, and he includes statistics and the number of seats won in the
previous and state elections. These statistics and results are facts, and he
uses them to back up credible assumptions and other facts. There are not many
opinions in the article, only predictions. Dr. Sen’s opinions are distinguished
with key words such as “will be,” “expect,” and others. Lastly, Dr. Ronojoy Sen
is a reliable source, as he has much experience and many strong credentials,
and he is a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore.